lesma

# Coinbase BTCUSD point-and-figure analysis

The short-term assessment remains bearish. High/Low has confirmed an upward reversal, but neither source has printed a buy signal. Nearby support remains under pressure.

Snapshot: 2026-10-15 at approximately 01:55 UTC, or 2026-10-14 at 19:55 Mexico City time. The Close chart reported spot near $81,653. The separate High/Low capture reported roughly $81,831, so the quotes are approximate, not a synchronized executable price. Both were below the original $83,600 snapshot.

The charts use COINBASE:BTCUSD, Traditional box assignment, $500 per box, 3-box reversal, and a 1D input interval. Close and High/Low were inspected separately. The analysis follows Thomas J. Dorsey's *Point and Figure Charting*, 4th edition, Chapters 2, 3, and 11.

## What changed after the daily rollover

The earlier 18:32 UTC High/Low snapshot showed an unconfirmed X projection to $84,000. The current chart includes that move as a confirmed X column beginning on October 14, from $81,500 to $84,000. Its top matches the preceding X top at $84,000. It does not exceed it, so the chart remains on its $84,500 sell signal.

High/Low now shows a separate unconfirmed O projection from $83,500 to $81,500. That projection does not break the preceding confirmed O low at $81,000. It is not a new sell signal and does not replace the confirmed history.

The Close chart's 45 confirmed columns are unchanged from the preceding snapshot. Its latest O column still ends at $82,000, and no projection was returned at capture. The original $83,000 sell signal remains active. A spot quote below $82,000 is not evidence that the daily Close chart has printed another confirmed box.

[INFERENCE] The High/Low reversal establishes that a bounce occurred, not that demand has regained control. Failure to exceed the preceding $84,000 X top, followed by renewed projected selling, leaves the bearish interpretation intact.

## Resistance and confirmed signals

Close has two successive X tops at $86,500. The October 7 O column then crossed the preceding $83,500 O low, generating a double-bottom sell at $83,000 and continuing to $82,000. A subsequent X column reached only $83,500, followed by another O column ending at $82,000.

High/Low has September and October resistance at $87,000, followed by lower X tops at $86,500 and $84,000. Its October 7 breakdown crossed the preceding $85,000 O low, generating a sell signal at $84,500 and reaching $80,500. The next confirmed O low was higher, at $81,000. The October 14 recovery matched $84,000 but did not print the additional $84,500 box required for a buy.

[INFERENCE] The higher High/Low O bottom is evidence of some stabilization. It is not enough to offset the failed resistance tests or overturn the active sell signal. A confirmed buy would be the first evidence of local repair, not automatic proof of a broader bullish resumption.

Book reference: Chapter 3, printed pp. 73-80, double tops, double bottoms, and declining tops.

## Decision levels

These are box-printing thresholds for the specified construction, not interchangeable spot-price triggers. An intraday touch is not the same as a confirmed 1D source-bar result.

| Checkpoint | Close source | High/Low source | Interpretation |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Last confirmed sell signal | $83,000 | $84,500 | Neither has been replaced by a buy |
| Latest confirmed O low | $82,000 | $81,000 | Reference support in recorded history |
| Next double-top buy | $84,000 | $84,500 | One box above the preceding confirmed X top |
| Next double-bottom sell | $81,500 | $80,500 | One box below the latest confirmed O low |
| Larger resistance breakout | $87,000 | $87,500 | Clears the September/October ceiling |
| Bearish vertical-count objective | $77,000 | $74,000 | October breakdown count, not a forecast |

Close would need a three-box upward reversal to $83,500 from its current $82,000 O low before a $84,000 buy could occur. High/Low is already in a confirmed X column topping at $84,000. Its three-box downward reversal threshold is $82,500. The projected O column reaches $81,500, but that column remains unconfirmed.

The original High/Low sell column reached $80,500. A new confirmed move to that level would nevertheless be a fresh sell relative to the more recent $81,000 O bottom. Historical lows and the latest signal threshold are different comparisons.

## Trend context and the shakeout hypothesis

The September local bullish support line starts one box below its anchor O low and rises one $500 box per column. On High/Low, the anchor low is $75,000 on September 15. The October 12 O column reached $81,000 against a reconstructed local line at $81,500, penetrating it. The confirmed October 14 X reversal does not erase that earlier penetration.

Close's local September line remains below its latest confirmed $82,000 O low. This difference is one reason not to treat the two source constructions as interchangeable.

[INFERENCE] Broader recovery remains possible, but the latest bounce has not supplied the evidence needed to call the October sell a bullish shakeout. Dorsey also requires supportive underlying and market trends and relative strength. Those conditions have not been established here. The High/Low local trend-line failure further weakens that interpretation.

This is a local trend-line assessment. It does not establish that every longer-term bullish support line has failed.

Book references: Chapter 2, printed pp. 51-55, trend lines. Chapter 3, printed pp. 91-93, shakeout requirements. Chapter 11, trend stops versus signal stops.

## Downside counts

The October breakdown columns are unchanged, so their bearish vertical counts remain unchanged. Dorsey's short-sale multiplier is 2 rather than 3.

Close: $86,000 minus 9 boxes × $500 × 2 gives a $77,000 objective. High/Low: $86,000 minus 12 boxes × $500 × 2 gives a $74,000 objective. Both counts include the endpoint boxes in the October 7 O column.

These are historical objectives from a completed breakdown column. They have no timing estimate and are not guaranteed destinations. They are not new targets derived from the latest unconfirmed O projection.

[INFERENCE] A fresh confirmed support break would reinforce the bearish reading and bring the earlier $75,000 to $78,000 trading area back into focus. That area is context, not a prediction that price must visit it.

Book reference: Chapter 2, printed pp. 57-60, objectives and vertical counts.

## What would change the interpretation

A confirmed local buy at $84,000 on Close or $84,500 on High/Low would replace that source's active sell signal. A subsequent pullback that holds a higher O bottom, followed by another buy, would provide stronger evidence of sustained demand. A breakout at $87,000 or $87,500, respectively, would clear the larger resistance formation.

A fresh confirmed sell at $81,500 on Close or $80,500 on High/Low would strengthen the bearish case. Until a new signal occurs, column direction and signal direction must remain separate: confirmed X boxes can coexist with an active sell signal, and a projected O column is not a confirmed breakdown.

## Sources and scope

[Interactive assessment and recorded chart data](https://trade.irving.bio/).

[Coinbase BTCUSD chart inspected on TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD).

[TradingView point-and-figure construction and projection rules](https://www.tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000502276-learn-using-point-and-figure-charts/).

Thomas J. Dorsey, *Point and Figure Charting*, 4th edition. The user's local ebook conversion supplied the chapter references. Fixed $500 Traditional boxes are not Dorsey's price-tiered default box schedule.

Close includes 45 confirmed columns beginning February 10. High/Low includes 51 beginning June 26. TradingView's numeric column indices shifted when the loaded history changed. Dates, directions, and price ranges were checked against the preceding capture, so the index change is not a new historical price move.

This is a timestamped technical interpretation, not a live feed, a trade instruction, or a guarantee of future performance. No orders, alerts, account login, or saved account-layout changes were made.