lesma

# Coinbase BTCUSD point-and-figure analysis

The short-term assessment remains bearish. Both sources retain their October 7 sell signals, with no new confirmed signal. High/Low's unconfirmed O projection has extended to $80,000 and crosses the potential $80,500 sell threshold. That is projected selling, not a confirmed breakdown.

Snapshot: October 15, 2026 at approximately 17:22 UTC, or 11:22 Mexico City time, UTC-6. Close was captured at `2026-10-15T17:22:24.400Z`, with a source-reported quote of $82,477.03. High/Low was captured independently at `2026-10-15T17:22:47.352Z`, with a source-reported projection-price value of $82,555.08. The latter equals the current daily high, so it must not be treated as a synchronized last-trade quote.

Both charts use COINBASE:BTCUSD, Traditional fixed $500 boxes, 3-box reversal, a 1D source interval, and one-step-back building disabled. Close and High/Low were inspected separately in an isolated public TradingView chart. The interpretation follows Thomas J. Dorsey's *Point and Figure Charting*, 4th edition, Chapters 2, 3, and 11.

## Observations and comparison with the preceding snapshot

The preceding valid snapshot was October 15 at approximately 01:55 UTC. Close's 45 confirmed columns and High/Low's 51 confirmed columns are unchanged when compared by start dates, directions, and box prices. There are no confirmed additions, extensions, or revisions in either retained historical window.

Close still ends in the October 12 O column from $83,000 to $82,000, inclusive of 3 boxes. No projection was returned. Its last confirmed signal remains the October 7 double-bottom sell at $83,000. The capture-time quote rose from approximately $81,653 to $82,477 without changing the confirmed P&F history.

High/Low still ends in the confirmed October 14 X column from $81,500 to $84,000, inclusive of 6 boxes. Its top equals the preceding X top at $84,000. Equality is not a buy signal. Its last confirmed signal remains the October 7 sell at $84,500.

High/Low's separate O projection extends from $83,500 to $80,000, inclusive of 8 boxes. The preceding projection ended at $81,500 with 5 boxes. The new projection crosses the latest confirmed O bottom at $81,000, the potential sell box at $80,500, and the October 7 low at $80,500. The model marks a potential sell at $80,500 but excludes the entire projection from confirmed signal state.

The series reported completed historical loading for both source captures. A separate 1D candlestick inspection showed October 14's completed bar followed by October 15's still-open daily bar. At 17:23 UTC, that live daily bar had a high of $82,555.08 and a low of $79,676.02. The low is consistent with an $80,000 High/Low projected box, not proof of a completed-source-bar signal. Historical loading completion and the current daily bar's close are different events. No daily rollover was claimed during this run.

The $500 grid, source settings, confirmed rows, and projection presence were checked against actual chart screenshots. A new timestamp is justified by these fresh independent observations and the extended projection, not by relabeling the preceding snapshot.

## Confirmed resistance, support, and signal state

Close has two successive X tops at $86,500. The October 7 O column crossed the preceding $83,500 O low, generating a double-bottom sell at $83,000 and continuing to $82,000. The October 11 X reversal reached only $83,500. The October 12 O column returned to $82,000 without breaking that earlier bottom, so it generated no new sell.

High/Low has September and October resistance at $87,000, followed by lower X tops at $86,500 and $84,000. Its October 7 O breakdown crossed the preceding $85,000 O low, generating a sell at $84,500 and reaching $80,500. The October 12 confirmed O bottom at $81,000 is higher than that historical low. The October 14 X column matched $84,000 without printing the $84,500 buy box.

[INFERENCE] The confirmed higher High/Low bottom showed some stabilization, but the deeper projected O decline puts that stabilization at risk. Neither an equal X top nor an intraday recovery in the quote establishes that demand has regained control. The confirmed bearish reading remains unchanged until the relevant source prints a new confirmed signal.

Book reference: Chapter 3, printed pp. 73-80, double tops, double bottoms, rising bottoms, and declining tops.

## Decision levels

These are box-printing thresholds for the specified construction. They are not interchangeable spot-price triggers. An intraday touch or a projected box is not a confirmed 1D source-bar result.

| Checkpoint | Close source | High/Low source | Interpretation |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Last confirmed sell signal | $83,000 | $84,500 | Neither has been replaced by a buy |
| Latest confirmed O low | $82,000 | $81,000 | Reference support in recorded history |
| Latest confirmed X top | $83,500 | $84,000 | Local resistance reference |
| Next double-top buy | $84,000 | $84,500 | One box above the preceding confirmed X top |
| Next double-bottom sell | $81,500 | $80,500 | One box below the latest confirmed O low |
| Larger resistance breakout | $87,000 | $87,500 | Clears the September/October ceiling |
| October bearish vertical-count objective | $77,000 | $74,000 | Historical completed breakdown count |

Close needs an upward three-box reversal to $83,500 from its current $82,000 O low before a $84,000 buy can occur. Its repeated $82,000 O bottoms would be broken by a confirmed $81,500 box.

High/Low is already in a confirmed X column topping at $84,000. Its downward three-box reversal threshold is $82,500. The current O projection exceeds that reversal requirement and crosses the potential $80,500 sell threshold, but neither event is confirmed. The earlier historical $80,500 low and the latest $81,000 support reference answer different comparisons.

## Local trend lines and the shakeout hypothesis

The September local bullish support lines start one box below their named O anchors and rise one $500 box per column. Close uses the September 7 low at $76,000, starting the line at $75,500. High/Low uses the September 15 low at $75,000, starting at $74,500.

High/Low's October 12 O column printed $81,000 against a reconstructed local bullish support line at $81,500, penetrating it. The confirmed October 14 X bounce does not erase that penetration. Close's corresponding local line remains below its latest confirmed $82,000 O low. No confirmed column changed during this run, so there is no new confirmed local trend-line event.

The optional October bearish resistance lines start at $87,000, one box above the final $86,500 X top before the October 7 sell. Their named anchors are October 4 on Close and October 6 on High/Low. The latest confirmed columns remain below those local guides. Projections are shown as unconfirmed and do not establish a new confirmed trend-line event.

[INFERENCE] The October decline cannot be called a confirmed bullish shakeout from these charts alone. Dorsey's setup also requires a strong underlying and market uptrend, price above bullish support, the first sell in that uptrend, and supportive relative strength. Those conditions have not been established here. High/Low's local support-line penetration and deeper projected selling further weaken the hypothesis.

These are local guides, not proof that every longer-term bullish support line has failed. Bitcoin spot is not a commodity futures contract, and Chapter 11's trend-versus-signal distinction is applied as analytical context, not as a futures-trading rule.

Book references: Chapter 2, printed pp. 51-55, bullish support and bearish resistance. Chapter 3, printed pp. 91-93, shakeout requirements. Chapter 11, printed pp. 327-335, commodity chart patterns and trend stops versus signal stops.

## Historical downside counts

The named October 7 O breakdown columns are unchanged and completed by subsequent confirmed X reversals. Their bearish vertical counts therefore remain unchanged. Counts include both endpoint boxes and use Dorsey's short-sale multiplier of 2, not 3.

Close: the October 7 column runs from $86,000 to $82,000, giving 9 boxes. $86,000 minus 9 × $500 × 2 gives a $77,000 objective.

High/Low: the October 7 column runs from $86,000 to $80,500, giving 12 boxes. $86,000 minus 12 × $500 × 2 gives a $74,000 objective.

These are historical objectives, not forecasts, guaranteed destinations, or timing estimates. No new count is derived from the current High/Low projection, which is neither confirmed nor a completed new breakdown column.

[INFERENCE] A fresh confirmed support break would reinforce the bearish reading and bring the earlier $75,000 to $78,000 trading area back into focus. The projected move raises that risk without proving it.

Book reference: Chapter 2, printed pp. 57-60, objectives and vertical counts, including the short-sale multiplier of 2.

## What would change the interpretation

A confirmed local buy at $84,000 on Close or $84,500 on High/Low would replace that source's active sell signal. A subsequent pullback that holds a higher O bottom, followed by another buy, would provide stronger evidence of sustained demand. A confirmed breakout at $87,000 or $87,500, respectively, would clear the broader resistance ceiling.

A fresh confirmed sell at $81,500 on Close or $80,500 on High/Low would strengthen the bearish case. High/Low currently projects that latter signal, but it has not confirmed it. Until a new confirmed signal occurs, column direction, projected direction, and active signal direction remain separate.

## Sources, provenance, and limitations

[Interactive assessment and recorded chart data](https://trade.irving.bio/).

[Coinbase BTCUSD chart inspected on TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD).

[TradingView point-and-figure construction and projection rules](https://www.tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000502276-learn-using-point-and-figure-charts/).

Thomas J. Dorsey, *Point and Figure Charting*, 4th edition. The user's local ebook conversion supplied Chapters 2, 3, and 11. Printed page references differ from PDF page numbers. Fixed $500 Traditional boxes are not Dorsey's price-tiered default box schedule.

Close retains 45 confirmed columns beginning February 10, 2026. High/Low retains 51 beginning June 26, 2026. Both windows were recaptured from actual loaded TradingView history. Dates, directions, and prices match the preceding valid snapshot. Numeric indices are retained as chart identifiers, not used to infer historical changes or select the October count anchors. No missing history is interpolated.

TradingView's internal accessors are undocumented and were checked against the rendered chart in this run. Source captures are separate in time. The Close quote and High/Low projection-price value are approximate source observations, not synchronized executable prices. The daily input bar is still open, so projections can change before confirmation. A missing projection remains null, never synthesized.

This is a timestamped technical interpretation, not a live feed, trade instruction, or guarantee of future performance. No trading, orders, alerts, brokerage connection, personal login, saved account-layout changes, or automatic price polling were performed.