lesma

# Coinbase BTCUSD point-and-figure analysis

Snapshot: 2026-10-14 at approximately 04:09 UTC, or 2026-10-13 at 22:09 Mexico City time. BTCUSD was approximately $83,600.

My read: short-term bearish, within a broader recovery that has not been fully invalidated. The current bounce is a reversal attempt, not yet a P&F buy signal.

I inspected live COINBASE:BTCUSD using Traditional / $500 / 3-box reversal, then compared it with Thomas J. Dorsey's Point and Figure Charting, 4th edition: construction, patterns, trend lines, and price-objective rules.

One important setting was unspecified: Source. TradingView defaults to Close, while Dorsey's examples use daily high/low. I checked both on a 1D input interval. The three requested settings alone do not guarantee an identical chart.

## The failed breakout matters more than the bounce

On the Close-source chart, two successive X columns topped at $86,500. The second reached resistance but did not exceed it.

That distinction matters in Dorsey's terminology: two equal tops are resistance, not a double-top buy signal. The buy signal requires one additional box.

The subsequent O column broke the previous $83,500 bottom, generating a double-bottom sell signal at $83,000, and continued to $82,000.

The next X column recovered only to $83,500, followed by another O column ending at $82,000.

[INFERENCE] That is a failed attempt to clear resistance, followed by a weak recovery. Demand has not recovered enough to overturn the sell signal. The repeated $82,000 bottom is a support shelf, but not proof that sellers are finished.

The high/low chart reaches the same directional conclusion, although its exact levels differ.

Book reference: Chapter 3, printed pp. 73-80, double tops/bottoms and declining tops.

## Decision levels

All levels below are box-printing thresholds for the stated source, not interchangeable spot-price triggers. On the daily Close chart, an intraday touch can remain only a projection.

| Checkpoint | Close source | High/low source | Interpretation |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Last confirmed sell signal | $83,000 | $84,500 | Supply won the latest signal |
| Latest completed O-column low | $82,000 | $81,000 | Reference low for the present bounce |
| Three-box reversal upward | $83,500 | $82,500 | Changes column direction, not the signal |
| Next double-top buy signal | $84,000 | $84,500 | Exceeds the preceding X top |
| Next double-bottom sell signal | $81,500 | $80,500 | Breaks the latest support structure |
| Break above September/October ceiling | $87,000 | $87,500 | Clears the larger resistance formation |

At inspection, both charts showed a projected X column topping at $83,500. Neither had printed the next buy-signal box.

[INFERENCE] A local buy signal would improve the picture, but clearing the larger ceiling would be materially stronger evidence. There is a difference between repairing the recent damage and resuming the broader advance.

## Not a confirmed shakeout

The Close chart resembles part of Dorsey's bullish shakeout setup:

- Two equal tops.
- A subsequent double-bottom sell signal.
- An upward reversal attempt.
- Price still above the shorter bullish support line reconstructed from September's low.

But Dorsey also requires a strong underlying and market uptrend, plus supportive relative strength. I have not established those conditions.

[INFERENCE] Possible shakeout is a hypothesis here, not the primary diagnosis. Calling the sell signal a shakeout before confirming those conditions risks explaining away weakness.

The high/low construction is less reassuring. A shorter bullish support line drawn one box below September's $75,000 O-column low rises to $81,500 at the latest completed column. That column reached $81,000, penetrating it.

This is a shorter-term trend-line failure, not evidence by itself that every longer-term bullish support line has failed.

Book reference: Chapter 3, printed pp. 91-93, shakeout requirements. Chapter 11, trend stops versus signal stops.

## Downside counts give context, not a forecast

Using Dorsey's bearish vertical-count convention, 2 rather than 3 as the multiplier:

- Close: the completed breakdown column contains 9 O boxes. $86,000 - (9 x $500 x 2) = $77,000.
- High/low: the corresponding column contains 12 O boxes. $86,000 - (12 x $500 x 2) = $74,000.

These are objectives derived from the October breakdown column, not guaranteed destinations or timing estimates.

[INFERENCE] The practical concern is that failure of the nearby support shelves could reopen the earlier $75,000-$78,000 trading area. That historical structure deserves more weight than treating either count as an exact target.

Book reference: Chapter 2, printed pp. 57-60, objectives and vertical counts.

## What would change the interpretation

[INFERENCE] I would remain cautious while the chart is on its sell signal and rebounds fail below the recent X tops.

A confirmed local buy signal would be the first repair. A subsequent pullback that holds a higher O bottom, followed by another buy signal, would provide better evidence of sustained demand. Clearing the larger September/October ceiling would strengthen that case further.

Conversely, another support break after this weak bounce would reinforce the bearish reading. The distinction I would keep central is column direction versus signal: X's can appear while the chart remains on a sell signal.

## References and scope

Thomas J. Dorsey, Point and Figure Charting, 4th edition, Chapters 2, 3, and 11. Consulted from the user's local ebook conversion at /home/yield/Documents/ebooks/point-and-figure-charting-4e. Local chapter links are omitted because they would not be accessible to paste readers.

TradingView source and projection rules: https://www.tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000502276-learn-using-point-and-figure-charts/

Chart inspected: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD

This is a timestamped technical interpretation, not a current-price feed or a guarantee of future performance. No account login, orders, alerts, or saved account-layout changes were made.