lesma

# Coinbase BTCUSD point-and-figure analysis

Close confirmed the formerly projected $81,500 support break, replacing its earlier $83,000 sell. High/Low confirmed an October 17 O reversal to $81,000 without a new signal, so its October 15 sell at $80,500 remains active. [INFERENCE] The short-term assessment remains bearish on both sources, but High/Low's higher O bottom is a constructive observation that has not yet produced a buy.

Snapshot: October 18, 2026 at approximately 00:00 UTC, or October 17 at 18:00 Mexico City time, UTC-6. Close was captured at `2026-10-18T00:00:58.346Z`, with a source-reported approximate quote of $81,345.12. High/Low was captured independently at `2026-10-18T00:01:13.867Z`, with a source-reported projection-price value of $81,335.91. These separate observations are not synchronized executable prices. Neither source returned a projection.

Both charts use COINBASE:BTCUSD, Traditional fixed $500 boxes, 3-box reversal, a 1D source interval, and one-step-back building disabled. Close and High/Low were inspected separately in an isolated public TradingView chart. The interpretation follows Thomas J. Dorsey's *Point and Figure Charting*, 4th edition, Chapters 2, 3, and 11.

## Observations and comparison with the preceding snapshot

The preceding valid snapshot was October 17 at approximately 00:01 UTC. Close retains all 45 confirmed columns beginning February 10, 2026. Its October 12 O column extended from $82,000 to $81,500, increasing from 3 to 4 inclusive boxes while retaining its $83,000 top. The other 44 columns have identical start dates, directions, and prices. There are no added columns or other historical revisions. Numeric indices are unchanged.

That extension crosses the preceding October 7 O bottom at $82,000 and confirms a sell at $81,500. The preceding snapshot's one-box projection is now part of the confirmed column, not a separate column. No projection was returned in this capture. Close's approximate quote changed from $81,483.33 to $81,345.12.

High/Low retains all 53 preceding confirmed columns beginning June 26, 2026 and adds the October 17 O column, giving 54 confirmed columns. The new column runs from $82,000 to $81,000, inclusive of 3 boxes. It reverses downward from the completed October 16 X top at $82,500. Its bottom is above the preceding October 15 O low at $80,000, so it does not generate a sell. All preceding dates, directions, and prices match. Their numeric indices shifted down by 1 as TradingView changed the loaded history.

High/Low returned no projection. Its completed downward reversal does not replace the October 15 sell with a buy. A missing projection remains null, never synthesized.

Separate 1D candlestick inspections at `2026-10-18T00:00:44.459Z` and `2026-10-18T00:01:34.632Z` returned the same completed October 17 bar: open $81,500.04, high $81,655.47, low $80,700.00, close $81,381.40. Both returned the new October 18 bar, whose opening price was $81,381.40. Historical loading reported completed status 3. Follow-up P&F checks at `2026-10-18T00:01:23.797Z` for High/Low and `2026-10-18T00:01:42.728Z` for Close retained the captured confirmed right edges and absent projections. The daily rollover had settled, but October 18's input bar remains open.

The completed close below $81,500 explains Close's confirmed extension. High/Low's completed daily low below $81,000 satisfies the three-box downward reversal from $82,500, but remains above the older $80,000 O low. This source-construction difference is not a contradiction.

The symbol, interval, Traditional inputs, $500 grid, actual confirmed rows, right-edge price ranges, and absent projections were checked against rendered chart screenshots. This is a fresh capture with a confirmed extension and reversal, not a relabeled preceding snapshot.

## Confirmed resistance, support, and signal state

Close has two successive X tops at $86,500. Its October 7 O column crossed the preceding $83,500 O low, generating the earlier sell at $83,000 and reaching $82,000. The October 11 X reversal reached only $83,500. The October 12 O column initially matched $82,000 without a new sell, then extended to $81,500 after the completed October 17 close. Its column start date remains October 12 even though the new sell was confirmed on October 17.

High/Low has September and October resistance at $87,000, followed by lower tops at $86,500, $84,000, and $82,500. Its October 7 O breakdown generated a sell at $84,500 and reached $80,500. The October 12 O column held $81,000, and the October 14 X column matched $84,000 without a buy. The October 15 O decline broke $81,000 at $80,500 and reached $80,000. The October 16 X reversal stopped at the lower $82,500 top. The October 17 O reversal held a higher bottom at $81,000 without a new sell.

[INFERENCE] Close's confirmed lower bottom strengthens the supply-led interpretation. High/Low's higher bottom shows that the latest decline has not repeated its prior low, but the lower X top and active sell prevent calling this a confirmed recovery. Equal tops or bottoms alone do not create a new signal, and column direction is separate from signal direction.

Book reference: Chapter 3, printed pp. 73 to 80, double tops, double bottoms, rising bottoms, and declining tops.

## Decision levels

These are box-printing thresholds for the specified construction, not interchangeable spot-price triggers. An intraday touch or projected box is not a confirmed 1D source-bar result. Levels were calculated with `annotateColumns` and `deriveLevels` from the actual captured columns.

| Checkpoint | Close source | High/Low source | Interpretation |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Last confirmed sell signal | $81,500, confirmed October 17 | $80,500, October 15 | Neither has been replaced by a buy |
| Latest confirmed O low | $81,500 | $81,000 | Latest reference support, not necessarily the lowest preceding O bottom |
| Latest confirmed X top | $83,500 | $82,500 | Local resistance reference |
| Upward three-box reversal from latest O low | $83,000 | $82,500 | A reversal is not a buy |
| Next double-top buy | $84,000 | $83,000 | One box above the completed preceding X top |
| Next support deterioration below both latest and preceding O lows | $81,000 | $79,500 | Further Close extension or a new High/Low sell |
| Larger resistance breakout | $87,000 | $87,500 | Clears the September/October ceiling |
| October 7 bearish vertical-count objective | $77,000 | $74,000 | Historical completed first-breakdown count |

Close needs an upward three-box reversal to $83,000 from its confirmed $81,500 O low before a $84,000 buy can occur. Further extension to $81,000 would deepen the current breakdown, not move the current column's original $81,500 signal price. A new distinct double-bottom formation would require an intervening confirmed X reversal.

High/Low needs an upward reversal to $82,500, which would only match its completed October 16 X top. A buy needs $83,000. The intervening confirmed O column changes the comparison top from the earlier $84,000 X top to the completed $82,500 top, lowering the buy threshold from $84,500 to $83,000. Its latest O low is $81,000, but extension to $80,500 would still be above the preceding $80,000 low, and $80,000 would only match that low. A new sell requires $79,500. A higher latest bottom does not justify raising that active-column sell threshold to $80,500.

## Local trend lines and the shakeout hypothesis

The September local bullish support lines start one box below their named O anchors and rise one $500 box per column. Close uses the September 7 low at $76,000, starting at $75,500. High/Low uses the September 15 low at $75,000, starting at $74,500.

Close's local guide remains $78,500 at its latest confirmed column. The extension adds a box within that column, not a new column, so the guide does not advance. Its $81,500 confirmed low remains above the local line.

High/Low's October 12 O column printed $81,000 against its reconstructed local bullish guide at $81,500, penetrating it. Its October 15 O low at $80,000 was below the $82,500 guide, and the October 16 X top at $82,500 stayed below the $83,000 guide. The new October 17 O column advances the guide to $83,500, above its entire $81,000 to $82,000 range. Its higher bottom has not reclaimed that local line.

The optional October bearish resistance lines start at $87,000, one box above the final $86,500 X top before the October 7 sell. Their named anchors are October 4 on Close and October 6 on High/Low. At the latest confirmed columns, these guides stand at $85,500 on Close and $83,500 on High/Low. Close's line is unchanged. High/Low's line moved down one box with the added O column. Both right edges remain below the lines, without a new upward penetration.

[INFERENCE] Neither chart establishes a confirmed bullish shakeout. Dorsey's setup requires a strong underlying and market uptrend, price above bullish support, the first sell in that uptrend, and supportive relative strength. Those conditions have not been established. Close's additional support break and High/Low's continuing local support-line failure weaken the hypothesis. High/Low's higher O bottom alone does not establish those missing conditions.

These are local guides, not proof that every longer-term bullish support line has failed. Bitcoin spot is not a commodity futures contract. Chapter 11's distinction between trend and signal is analytical context, not a futures-trading instruction.

Book references: Chapter 2, printed pp. 51 to 55, bullish support and bearish resistance. Chapter 3, printed pp. 91 to 93, shakeout requirements. Chapter 11, printed pp. 327 to 335, commodity chart patterns and trend stops versus signal stops.

## Historical downside counts

The named October 7 O breakdown columns are unchanged and completed by subsequent confirmed X reversals. Their historical bearish vertical counts remain unchanged. Counts include both endpoint boxes and use Dorsey's short-sale multiplier of 2, not 3. `bearishObjective` reproduces these calculations.

Close: the October 7 column runs from $86,000 to $82,000, giving 9 boxes. $86,000 minus 9 × $500 × 2 gives a $77,000 objective.

High/Low: the October 7 column runs from $86,000 to $80,500, giving 12 boxes. $86,000 minus 12 × $500 × 2 gives a $74,000 objective.

Close's newly extended October 12 O column remains unfinished without a subsequent X reversal and is not the named first breakdown off the October top. High/Low's new October 17 O column did not generate a sell. Neither justifies substituting a new primary bearish count. The completed October 15 High/Low sell is a later breakdown in the same decline, not the displayed first-breakdown anchor.

These historical objectives are not forecasts, guaranteed destinations, or timing estimates. [INFERENCE] The earlier $75,000 to $78,000 trading area remains downside context after Close's confirmed support deterioration and High/Low's retained sell. A higher High/Low bottom does not guarantee recovery, and the count does not guarantee a decline to that area.

Book reference: Chapter 2, printed pp. 57 to 60, objectives and vertical counts, including the short-sale multiplier of 2 and first down move off the top.

## What would change the interpretation

A confirmed local buy at $84,000 on Close or $83,000 on High/Low would replace that source's active sell in the current structure. A subsequent pullback holding a higher O bottom, followed by another buy, would provide stronger evidence of sustained demand. A confirmed breakout at $87,000 or $87,500, respectively, would clear the broader resistance ceiling.

A further confirmed Close extension to $81,000 would deepen the existing support break. A High/Low extension through its older $80,000 low to $79,500 would confirm a new sell. Neither an open daily bar nor a projected direction should be mistaken for a new confirmed signal. No projections are recorded in this snapshot.

## Sources, provenance, and limitations

[Interactive assessment and recorded chart data](https://trade.irving.bio/).

[Coinbase BTCUSD chart inspected on TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD).

[TradingView point-and-figure construction and projection rules](https://www.tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000502276-learn-using-point-and-figure-charts/).

Thomas J. Dorsey, *Point and Figure Charting*, 4th edition. The user's local ebook conversion at `/home/yield/Documents/ebooks/point-and-figure-charting-4e` supplied Chapters 2, 3, and 11. Printed page references differ from PDF page numbers. Fixed $500 Traditional boxes are not Dorsey's price-tiered default box schedule.

Close retains 45 confirmed columns beginning February 10, 2026. High/Low retains 54 beginning June 26, 2026. Both historical windows were recaptured from actual loaded TradingView history. Close changes only its latest bottom by one box. High/Low adds one October 17 O column. Numeric indices are chart identifiers, not evidence of historical revisions or selectors for count and trend anchors. No missing history is interpolated.

TradingView's internal accessors are undocumented and were checked against the rendered chart in this run. Confirmed rows came from `series.bars()._items`. Both `series.nsBars()._items` and the projection pane view returned no projection. Source captures are separate in time, and the internal projection-price field is an approximate observation, not a guaranteed last-trade or daily-high API. October 17 is completed, but October 18's daily input bar is open. Historical loading status 3 alone does not mean that the current daily bar is completed.

The dashboard keeps confirmed signal state separate from projections and uses the named October 7 count anchors. Its existing same-column projection handling and direction-sensitive decision boundaries are retained. The separate live `/chart/` Coinbase candle and Ichimoku v6 page is independent of this snapshot refresh and remains unchanged.

This is a timestamped technical interpretation, not a live P&F feed, trade instruction, or guarantee of performance. No trading, orders, alerts, brokerage connection, personal login, saved account-layout changes, or automatic price polling were performed.